Hotel Expert Insight on Industry Uncertainty and Past Recessions

On the minds of many a hotel expert, investor and management company going forward into next year is uncertainty in lodging industry performance. The so-called “fiscal cliff” has many developers, buyers and lending firms waiting on the sidelines while they look for a clear direction about the current economy before making decisions on where and when to deploy capital. For those of us who have been around in the hospitality industry during several past recessions, the state of the hotel real estate recovery looks a lot like what happened thirty years ago, but with a “what-if” added into the mix. According to an article in the November 2012 issue of Lodging Hospitality by the founder and president of HVS International, it was not until 1987, and four years later, for daily hotel room demand in the USA during the 1980 to 1982 recession to recover to pre-recession levels. The 1980’s recovery says this hotel expert was fueled by two stimulus programs that Congress implemented to move the economy out of the recession. These included tax shelters and deregulation of the savings and loan industry. Current wisdom among hotel capital advisors suggests that hotel development, acquisitions and investments are hindered significantly by the lack of financing available. According to this article in the Wall Street Journal – “Some of the banks that went to the sidelines [in recent years] have come back,” Mr. Hoesley said. But, “on the food chain of commercial real estate, [hotels are] still probably on the low end of banks’ appetites right now.” U.S. Bancorp has lent on at least 15 hotels currently under construction.” Part of the present financing inactivity is driven in part by government banking regulations that have stifled lenders ability and desire to fund or finance commercial real estate including hotel real estate. Moving forward and now that the national elections are over, will the current President and Congress enact legislation similar to lending stimulus programs that took us out of the recession of the 1980’s? What if there is no agreement among the legislation and we go over the fiscal cliff? Please share your comments and opinions with this hotel expert and our readers here.