Hotel investment advisors have their work cut out trying to follow the latest news, trends and studies on the lodging sector. Trying to advise investors to buy, hold or sell as a result of that information is challenging on any given day. Are we headed back to a recession after December 2011? Or, is it all rosy with more expected growth in 2012? Depending on what statistics and forecasts you want to believe – the stories at best are severely mixed. According to this study by Travel Click and published in USA Today, overall growth for hotel RevPAR in 2012 is forecasted at an annual 7% with rises in average room rates and hotel occupancies by 5% and 4% respectively. Surprisingly, Detroit leads the way! Are we selling more cars so that travel demand is up at the big automotive corporate offices? Hard to say. Hotel investment advisors and investors can decide by reading the full article here. In a separate analysis published in HotelNewsNow.com and based on the Hotel Industry Leading indicator (HIL): A probability of recession for hotels rose again in September 2011 and by a larger percentage than August 2011 or 44.2% vs. 12.2%. If you are a large investment fund or hospitality asset manager overseeing hotel acquisitions, the rest can be found here. According to the analyst – “The probability of a recession in for the U.S. hotel industry increased near the threshold of 50% in September,” said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com. “The rule of thumb is that if this probability shoots over the threshold of 50 for three months, then a recession is imminent.” You can also subscribe to our newsletters for more commentary by our hotel management expert group. Are you hotel investment advisors or hotel real estate investors evaluating the state of the industry now in order to buy or sell a hotel? What can you share with our readers as to your findings in terms of the likelihood or not of a near term recession?
